A new analysis of global obesity trends has been published in Nature journal. Studies, led by researchers at Imperial College London through the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), examine more than four decades of health data from 200 countries and territories, covering a period from 1980 to 2024. The large-scale study reveals that the rate of increase in obesity has slowed, plateaued and may even have reversed in many countries.
The team analysed measurements of weight and height from more than 232 million people aged five years or older (70 million people aged five to 19 years and 162 million aged 20 years or older), representing 200 countries and territories. The study also analysed data from Bulgaria. Among the key findings highlighted in the report by Imperial College London is that improvements in high-income countries are usually observed first among children and adolescents, followed about a decade later among adults. In most developed high-income countries, the increase in childhood obesity occurred before 2000, with this trend slowing, plateauing and even slightly reversing thereafter. In contrast to these signs of progress, the analysis also highlights that obesity continues to increase and is even accelerating in most low- and middle-income countries.
What is the situation in Bulgaria? This question is addressed by Prof. Dr. Violeta Yotova – Vice–Rector for Science and Research at MU–Varna, Head of the Paediatrics Division at UMHAT “St. Marina"–Varna, and a lead researcher over the past two decades in numerous projects targeted at studying and improving children's health in Bulgaria, such as ToyBox, Feel4Diabetes, Growinform, etc., whose outcomes are included in the current analysis. “Unfortunately, Bulgaria is not among the countries where a plateau or decline in the negative trend of increasing obesity has been observed. In our country, not only does the number of children with obesity continue to rise, but overweight also begins at increasingly younger ages. To sustainably change the trend in Bulgaria, it is essential for our country to create and adopt a state policy for preventing and combating obesity. The results of such a strategy would become visible no earlier than ten years from now," explains Prof. Yotova.
The researchers from Imperial College London state that through focusing on the rate of change in obesity over time, rather than only on its prevalence, it is possible to identify where urgent action is needed, including strong health and nutrition policies that can help nations adapt and manage public health during economic, technological, and nutritional transitions.
“We now need to understand why some countries are performing so much better than others and apply those lessons to halt the rise in obesity. Ultimately, this analysis indicates that the obesity trend is not inevitable, and that policies can intervene to halt and even reverse rising obesity trends," underlines Prof. Majid Ezzati from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London and Academic Director of Imperial Global Ghana, who led the analysis.
The study “Obesity Rise Plateaus in Developed Nations and Accelerates in Developing Nations" was published in Nature journal. Four scientists from MU–Varna were involved in it – Prof. Dr. Violeta Yotova, Prof. Dr. Yoto Yotov, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sonya Galcheva and Dr. Mina Lateva. The full publication is available here: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0
